A thorough investigation of the large-scale structure of relations of inductive support within the material theory of induction, according to which inductive inferences are warranted not by universal rules but by facts particular to each other.
The Large-Scale Structure of Inductive Inference investigates the relations of inductive support on the large scale, among the totality of facts comprising a science or science in general. These relations form a massively entangled, non-hierarchical structure which is discovered by making hypotheses provisionally that are later supported by facts drawn from the entirety of the science. What results is a benignly circular, self-supporting inductive structure in which universal rules are not employed, the classical Humean problem cannot be formulated and analogous regress arguments fail.
The earlier volume, The Material Theory of Induction proposed that individual inductive inferences are warranted not by universal rules but by facts particular to each context. This book now investigates how the totality of these inductive inferences interact in a mature science. Each fact that warrants an individual inductive inference is in turn supported inductively by other facts. Numerous case studies in the history of science support, and illustrate further, those claims. This is a novel, thoroughly researched, and sustained remedy to the enduring failures of formal approaches to inductive inference.
With The Large-Scale Structure of Inductive Inference, author John D. Norton presents a novel, thoroughly researched, and sustained remedy to the enduring failures of formal approaches of inductive inference.
About the Author
John D. Norton is a distinguished professor of history and philosophy of science at the University of Pittsburgh. He works in history and philosophy of physics and general philosophy of science. He is co-founder of philsci-archive, a preprint server in the philosophy of science, and of &HPS, a conference series in the integrated history and philosophy of science.
Norton’s important new book will be an essential touchstone for all future work on the logic of scientific reasoning. According to Norton, relations of inductive support in science form an intricate web. Norton’s account of this web is enriched by deep dives into illuminating episodes from the history of science. The book is also enlivened by Norton’s clear and accessible writing and characteristic good humor.
—Marc Lange, Theda Perdue Distinguished Professor of Philosophy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Norton’s book is a must read for anyone who wonders about what makes science rational. In the face of centuries of skepticism about, and backlash against science, Norton provides the strongest case ever that all is good (or can be good) with science. The perspective is fresh, the arguments are probing, and the assembled historical data is awe inspiring.
—Hans Halvorson, Stuart Professor of Philosophy, Princeton University
There is much to admire about this book. It presents the most elaborate exposition and defence of Norton’s material theory of induction, it discusses Norton’s original view of the problem of induction, it combines philosophical theorizing in an exemplary way with beautifully chosen case studies, and it is, like all of Norton’s work, superbly written. Last but not least, it gives those (like us Bayesians) who disagree with Norton much to think about. A must-read for anyone interested in the philosophy of science.
—Stephan Hartmann, MCMP, LMU Munich
WINTER. Lakatos Award | 2026