Deterrence in the 21st Century: Statecraft in the Information Age

Leading experts in defence and security studies advancing our understanding of how to deter disinformation by pre-empting our adversaries, a most pressing and difficult security challenge of the 21st Century.

The information age has opened a new front of adversarial statecraft. The past decades have seen the rise and refinement of conflict enacted in the world of information, with tactics including seeding disinformation, the theft of sensitive data, confusing or obscuring public opinion to forward specific goals, and beyond. Deterrence in the 21st Century asks how, and if it is indeed possible, to deter an enemy in the realm of information warfare.

Setting the stage with an overview of key concepts of deterrence in the information age, the book presents new conceptual approaches and their possible applications. Bringing together some of the most respected analysts working today, Deterrence in the 21st Century looks beyond the technical aspects of the use of information and disinformation as adversarial statecraft to seek new avenues to deter the undermining of institutions and societies.

Treating deterrence as a concept, a policy, a social challenge, and a series of practical solutions, Deterrence in the 21st Century presents theoretical approaches, conceptual analysis, empirical research, and content analysis. This is a thorough, thoughtful, and expert analysis of one of the most difficult and essential security challenges of our time.

With contributions by: Christopher Ankersen, Yair Ansbacher, Oshri Bar-Gill, Stephen J. Cimbala, Maddie D’Agata, Molly Ellenberg, Leandre R. Fabrigar, Rachel Lea Heide, Nicole J. Jackson, Pierre Jolicoeur, Christian Leuprecht, Adam Lowther, Sarah Jane Meharg, Eric Ouellet, Ronald D. Porter, Anthony Seaboyer, Ron Schleifer, Miniqian Shen, Anne Speckhard, Keith Stewart, Joseph Szeman, and Alex Wilner

Eric Ouellet is a full professor at the Royal Military College of Canada in Defence Studies, teaching to mid and senior level officers at the Canadian Forces College. He is founder and director of the Centre for Institutional Analysis of Armed Forces, and has been involved in numerous international collaborative research projects on military matters.

Madeleine D’Agata received her PhD in psychology in 2017. From 2017 to 2022, she was a Defence Scientist at Defence Research and Development Canada. Dr. D’Agata has published over 60 reports. In 2022 she deployed to Chief, Professional Conduct and Culture and is a Senior Policy Advisor.

Keith Stewart works at Defence Research and Development Canada’s Toronto Research Centre. In a 30-year career, which has included periods in private industry and government service, he has focused on human-centric research issues, including influence operations, human elements of military command, and human error in high hazard environments.

Foreward
Vice-Admiral B. Auchterlonie, Commander Canadian Joint Operations Command

Preface
Peter Kwantes, Chief Scientist, Defence and Research and Development Canada, Toronto Research Centre

Introduction
Eric Ouellet, Royal Military College of Canada

Section I. Deterrence as an Evolving Concept

Deterrence Is Always about Information: A New Framework for Understanding
Christopher Ankersen, New York University

Nuclear Crisis Management for the Information Age
Stephen J. Cimbala, Penn State Brandywine, and Adam B. Lowther, Nation Strategic Research Institute

Deterrence by De-legitimization in the Information Environment: Concept, Theory, and Practice
Alex Wilner, Carleton University

Section II. Wider Strategic Contexts and Experiences

Understanding Russia’s Approaches to Information Warfare
Rachel Lea Heide, DRDC Centre for Operational Research and Analysis

The Evolution of China’s Information Exploitation of COVID-19
Anthony B. Seaboyer and Pierre Jolicoeur, Royal Military College of Canada

Deterrence in the Gaza Conflict: Hamas Case Study Analysis
Ron Schleifer and Yair Ansbacher, Ariel University of Samaria

Resilience as a Framework for Deterrence in the Information Age: Lessons Learned from Israel about Information and Influence Operations
Oshri Bar-Gil, IDF Applied Behavioral Science Institute

Section III. Canada’s Context

Deterrence and Strategic Disinformation: An Overview of Canada’s Responses
Nicole J. Jackson, Simon Fraser University

Exit, Voice, or Loyalty? Functional Engagement as Cyber Strategy for Middle Power Statecraft
Joseph Szeman, Queen’s University, and Christian Leuprecht, Royal Military College of Canada

Section IV. Emerging Tools and Approaches

Digital Tribalism and Ontological Insecurity: Manipulating Identities in the Information Environment
Sarah Jane Meharg, Canadian Forces College

Deterrence for Online Radicalization and Recruitment in the Twenty-First Century
Anne Speckhard and Molly Ellenberg, International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism

Assessing Influence in Target Audiences that Won’t Say or Don’t Know How Much They Have Been Influenced
Ronald D. Porter, Saint Mary’s University—Calgary, Minqian Shen, Queen’s University, Leandre R. Fabrigar, Queen’s University, and Anthony Seaboyer, Royal Military College of Canada

Conclusion
Keith Stewart and Madeleine D’Agata, Defence and Research and Development Canada, Toronto Research Centre

Afterword
Lieutenant-General Jennie Carrigan, Chief of Professional Conduct and Culture

Postface
Eric Ouellet

List of Abbreviations
About the Authors
Index